wisconsin moved from toss township lean obama. oregon moved from lean obama to obama. and arizona moved from romney to lean romney. this drops obama total of obama states to 196, plus he has 51 lean. romney has, grew slightly to 159 electoral votes in his column. plus 32 lean. it was a week of some change, not a lot. but generally compensating changes. >> bret: of those, the significance? >> the most significant is wisconsin moving to lean obama. it caution here, there is an outlier poll out there. a poll that shows obama leading in wisconsin by 14 points. that is skewing this. wisconsin is starting to lean. that is shrinking, shrinking the electoral map. the other surprise for me still is that north carolina remains on our map as tossup this late in the game. 43 or so days out. >> bret: last week we heard karl talk about the polls and how he believes they're skewed toward a democratic turn-out? maybe toward an 2008 turn-out model. you have a different thought about how the polls, most of them are being run. >> i started to look at the data in iowa and florida and the